Live Trading Room

Haha yet another amazing days trading using my 3 H1 candle trend identification and Vantages m5 reversals with a few 2b reversals for good measure.

My mate James and I are learning to trade like machines, it is not the easiest thing to do but we are getting there. James tells me he has made 1 or 2 trades every day this week with 100% repeat 100% success rate. He only trades about an hour a day if that. How cool is that?  Well done James mate, I love it.

I am managing to overcome my small gonad problem and am hitting two or three times that a day, 5 a day is the UK government recommendation so if we can double that we will be sorted. LOL.

Iam feeling lazy today so am just going to post some of the setups and trades I saw and took. You can work out the details yourself using prior posts on this blog.

AU below.

EU below

GJ below

A gu h1 2b setup below

a gu m5 trade i took

an ej m1 trade i took off the 20 emas while chatting to a friend about the setups

an au m1 trade setup similat to ej, not all the 20 emas below acting as support

A pretty au m15 2b pattern below

My favourite setup today, I had just been showing a mate how to spot the three candle trend reversal using any timeframe, AU showed a goos example on m15.

m15 chart below, candle 2 closing above 1 was the trigger to look for longs.

the resultant trade is below, the m5 chart wouldn’t fit the move was so big. Only problem was my target was 9 pips, 1.2%. LOL.

It was NFP day today, traditionally I would have warned to stay away from this trading day, even the whole week. Not now I know that the dealers have to make their bonuses every day.

We are trading them at their own games, BRING IT ON.

I was ready for the euro trades as a result of the earlier post today, long using c11 divergence then a short after the h1 candle and Frankfurt boys had spiked in the long orders ready for a reversal short at London Open 8am GMT.

another trade was AUD/USD based on the H1 reversal as shown below.

the H1 was a perfect break of the downtrend with the close above the H1 LH at 0.90737 signalling a possible long opportunity. I dropped to the m5 chart and waited for the retracement and possible Vantage m5 reversal. I had to use a M1 2b reversal long.

M1 2b reversal with divergence below

I woke early ( 3am ) today and thought I would have a go at drawing some very basic support and resistance levels as I see them. This is just me thinking out loud and how I perceive support and resistance, nothing is set in stone. I strongly believe in trading the most recent SR levels when trading intra day charts, H4 down. 

Euro USD below, monthly chart first. 

EU weekly chart below, I have left the solid red and green Monthly levels on the chart and added the dotted weekly levels of resistance. Note no new support levels as the most recent take precidence and this weeks candle hasn’t closed yet.

We can now look at the daily chart and try to make some sense of that using the same rules and principals of confirmed support and resistance levels.

Yesterdays daily close above 1.27787 is very significant, it was a big buying candle with a higher low and higher high, I would expect a pullback for profit takers before a possible reversal long again. A re-test of the major (monthly) support at 1.2587 looks possible. Of course there is no reason we wouldn’t see a continuation up to weekly res at 1.29218, this is why we use price action analysis on the lower timeframes. TRADE WHAT YOU SEE, not what you think.

below I have added daily support and resistance to the charts, we have to add them as they will be areas that may reverse the price before the weekly and monthly SR.

I don’t like the H4 chart due to the fact h4 candles are considered slightly less reliable by most traders due to the fact different brokers h4 candles all close at different times. I have an open mind and like to think the ones that coincide with the New York open and close can be relied upon. We will skip to the hourly chart now.

Notice H1 closed above 1.2800 the pink daily res, the red dotted weekly res and we had a load of green h1 candles throughout the day yesterday. All very bullish signals to me, but ripe for a possible pullback.

I have added H1 support and resistance levels, dotted pink resistence, dotted yellow support

The m5 chart below shows the price between the solid red h1 20 ema and the dotted red m15 ema, 1.27787 is the dotted red weekly res, last weeks high. We have C11 divergence suggesting longs imminent. If we get a push up to bring in long orders then m5 divergence with a vantage m5 reversal I would consider shorting this baby. We have to wait for price action to show us the way, the safest trades would be breaks and re-tests of one of those support and resistance levels I have drawn.

Another brilliant days work trading m5 reversals using tiny stop losses and buying when others are selling and vice versa.

EU divergence short then a cheeky long shown below.

then a GBP/JPY trade below, long using m5 divergence and the 2b logic and targets.

Swissy trade below, this was my prettiest looking trade in a long while, a true 2b stop hunt and impulse reversal.

5 trades, 4 winners 1 loser, net 7%, Swissy was a 2.5 reward risk target. It really is a wonderful thing to be able to open a trading terminal and spot possible trades on the m5 (5 minute chart) almost any time of day. Total freedom and a low stress way of trading. It has taken me a long while to get to this stage. Thanks goodness I never gave up.

I have to thank Dave Vantage mostly for his brilliant m5 reversal setup, Islander and Medici have inspired Dave so they deserve thanks too. Onwards and upwards, screentime and 1000′s of hours of dedicated price action research have got those guys to where they are now, I aspire to become as good as them someday.

K.I.S.S. Keep It Simple Stupid.

Another amazing mornings trading using H1 reversals with Vantages m5 reversals for fine tuning the entries. Add a few 2b rveresals in for good measure and it’s win win all the way.

ej below

gj below

Medicis c11 divergence on the m5 chart is the key to getting these trades right at the tops and bottoms.

Todays trades so far. Sold off m15 divergenc to the h1 20 ema, then looked for the bounce off  that ema. 

I also shorted it again at 1.5547 down to 1.5537. 3 trades 4% and it isn’t even 7.30 yet.

H1 looks like the bueb may be getting ready for reversals short too.

it reversed, see below, grabbed another 1%

now looking for longs with tight stops, m5, m1, confirmed reversals with divergence would be nice.

M5 trade below, perfect

looking for m5 divergence reversal at res now, h1 1.5578 ish?

five trades 5 winners 6% added to my account.

Final trade for this morning below.

6 trades just over 7%, all from just one currency pair. V nice, pretty relaxed too.

It’s the weekend and time to have a look at the end of week charts and try to work out what will happen on the longer term charts. I am being lazy today so this is just a cut and paste from another blog I am busy with.

Two weeks after my previous post on this weekly trading blog and I would like to update on the progress. Here is the weekly chart from the 15th August.

below is the weekly chart for comparison

Below is the daily chart from two weeks later, August 29th.

below is the two week old daily chart for comparison.

If you look at my previous post you will see Aussie did exactly as I had predicted, they pulled back into the body of that weekly bearish engulfing candle to 9079, then sold to 8840 (over 200 pips).

Just dealers games but using trend analysis with candlesticks we can learn to predict these moves with precision.

We can use 2b reversals and three candle confirmed reversals on the lower timeframes to trade these huge swings up and down.

Below is an EJ weekly chart I have worked on, bounce to 111, then down to 100? we shall see.

I had to post this cad weekly chart as well, this is what we trade on the h1 chart, three candle confirmed reversals, this is mad, it is even a huge 2b or head and shoulders pattern.

look at the daily chart below, this is crazy, a huge 2b reversal long, a confirmed reversal at the bottom with a daily hammer candle, this stuff is priceless.

I really am getting there now with this fractal stuff. Hammer candles can be 2b reversals on the lower timeframes, all these chart patterns we see every day occur and play out the same way on every timeframe.

James and I had a brilliant morning discussion on Friday and it really got me fired up to crack this stuff once and for all.

It has been coming clear to me that all the stuff my old mentor taught me about trend trading and swings within swings can all be seen by just looking at the individual candles or bars, then dropping to the lower timeframes to see the priceaction within those candles or bars.

Thursdays GJ trade was a perfect example. H1 confirmed reversal, drop to m5, look at the confirmed trend with a close below support then retracement before getting the perfect short entry.

gj h1

m5 chart below

Something else I am noticing. IMPORTANT.

One thing I never quite understood about the original trend analysis and as such 100% correct entries was how to identify the valid break of the prior uptrend. I was taught that for a new trend to work properly, WE HAD to have a VALID trend to climb back up. Try to think of a valid trend as steps and a non valid trend as a wall, if the downtrend is one big step, i.e a wall then our new uptrend will struggle to climb the wall. If the downtrend is a series of steps down, then our new uptrend has a series of steps to help it climb back up.

I have borrowed a couple of images from a pring document I found online and edited them to try to help visualise what I mean. The wall is a powerfull single swing up, buyers are strong therefore we have no points of reference / support or resistance to enable us to trade it down.

meanwhile steps up / trend shows us indecision on the way up, we can use the support and resistance to trade off on the way back down.

this is very simplistic but we have to think like the dealers and major buyers and sellers, what is the price action telling us? I have tried to show what I mean using candles below but please remember trend analysis isn’t an exact science, we can still have these powerful moves up and then a very shallow reversal trend at the top and a fast run back down. Screentime is imperative as always.

If after that large green candle we had had two new candles the first making a higher low and a higher high then the next one making a lower high and a lower low with a close lower than the low of the previous candle this waould have been a very nice confirmed reversal into the body of that large bullish candle. As it was it continued north.

I have photo edited the bullish candle chart to show a confirmed reversal and why we would enter short.

I am now averaging 4 winning trades per morning session – 6am – 9am GMT, 1% risk per trade, averaging about 1.3% reward per trade, 3-5% a day, every day. (60-80% per month)

Hi all, I am at a point in my trading career where I feel any improvements to my current trading methods will be made more effectively by me concentrating on trading and practicing rather than journaling my trades and creating charts. They served their purpose and helped me learn and improve, I hope they helped some of you as much as they helped me.

I have edited this post to add a very important point I would like to make about my 5 year journey from a complete trader newbie to where I am now.

Everything I have done, every mistake I have made, every one of the 15,000 hours spent studying (conservative estimate), has been worthwhile. BUT. The real turning point came when I moved my focus from pure technical analysis and concentrated on what the candles and chart patterns were telling me about dealer intervention and order flow.

Sure, SR,  trendlines and moving averages are the tools the dealers use, but try to ask yourself why they have created those levels. When you think like them you can trade like them. Good luck.

I will resume posting soon, maybe a day or two, maybe a little longer. Meanwhile for anyone who would like access to this entire blog and the recent year or so’s history of how I went from struggling to make 10% growth a month on my account to the more recent  probability of 10% a week and a very good possibility of 10% A DAY.

Email me at info@forex-experts.co.uk and I will forward you a password. I hope to be in a position to open my own live trading room / school some time in the future. See you soon.

UPDATE. I don’t think my forced break will last long, here is a blinding trade I took on gj. The charts speak for themselves.

H1 chart below

m5 chart below

a selection of trades I took from the 23rd August.

and the short trade I expected at 8am, dealer reversal at London open.